James Adkins | Europe and Eurasia Fellow
European Parliament re-elects Ursula von der Leyen as Commission President - Plenary Session July 2024. Image sourced from European Parliament via Wikimedia Commons.
From June 6-9, millions across the European Union (EU) cast their ballots to elect their representatives in the European Parliament. Held every five years, the elections can be a barometer of Europe’s political mood. The results will shape policymaking over the coming term and determine the candidates nominated for top EU jobs, such as Commission President.
Far-right gains
After a campaign dominated by anti-immigration sentiment and a backlash against environmental laws, predictions of huge gains by far-right parties created fears of future policy obstruction. However, while far-right parties together gained a net 44 seats, they remain divided into different factions and far short of a majority. The most significant consequence of the increased far-right presence in the Parliament is likely to be the pushing of centrist parties rightward on key issues such as immigration and the EU Green Deal.
Centre holds steady
The centre-right ‘European People’s Party’ (EPP) of incumbent EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen remains the largest party after winning 188 seats. Combined with the liberal ‘Renew’ group, the Greens and the ‘Socialists and Democrats’ (S&D) – which despite losses remains the second largest parliamentary grouping – Europe should maintain a stable, pro-European majority for this term. Von der Leyen was comfortably confirmed by the Parliament for a second five-year term as Commission President on July 18, drawing support from across the political spectrum.
In the political guidelines issued for her 2024-29 mandate, Von der Leyen notably outlined a vision of a strengthened EU defence and security policy, and pledged to support the accession of candidate member states such as Ukraine to the EU.
Stalling Franco-German engine
But all is not so stable across Europe. Catastrophic results in the elections for French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have left them both ‘lame-duck’ leaders and weakened the ‘France-German engine’ that traditionally drives the EU.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally dominated the EU election with 31 per cent of the vote, doubling the score of Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition. This led Macron to call snap domestic legislative elections which resulted in a parliament sharply divided between three main blocs and lacking a clear majority. In Germany, Scholz’ centre-left SPD scored just 13.9 per cent of the vote, beaten by the far-right AfD and trailing distantly behind the centre-right CDU. With the leaders of the EU’s two most powerful member states in weak domestic positions, they will have reduced political capital to expend on contentious EU issues such as common debt, collective defense and the accession of new member states.
Shifting regional power balance
In stark contrast to the poor performance of incumbent leaders in France and Germany, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk both emerged victorious from the elections. In Italy, Meloni’s ‘Brothers of Italy’ party scored 28 per cent of the vote, affirming her dominance in Italian politics following years of unstable coalition governments. In Poland, Tusk’s pro-EU coalition scored 37 per cent, bolstering his position after narrowly winning last year’s election and ending the near decade-long rule of the right-wing Eurosceptic ‘Law and Justice’ party.
These results will strengthen Meloni’s influence on EU immigration policy and support Tusk’s ambition for Poland to “regain its position as a leader in the European Union”. With Italy’s economic growth consistently outpacing Germany in recent years, and Poland spending the highest percentage of GDP on defence in NATO, Meloni and Tusk have emerged as key political power players in Brussels.
Estonian PM nominated to high-level role
A particularly noteworthy development in the wake of the elections is the nomination of Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas to become the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs. Hailing from a Baltic state which borders Russia, Kallas has been a vocal critic of Russia’s war in Ukraine and spoken of the importance of democracies working together to protect the rules-based international order.
Addressing the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore last year, Kallas declared that “security challenges in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic area are inseparable.” The appointment of Kallas and the reappointment of Von der Leyen – who has vowed to “deter China from unilaterally changing the status quo by military means, particularly over Taiwan” – indicates a more hawkish EU tone towards China and Russia.
Implications for Australia
The European elections were seen as a barrier to negotiations on an EU-Australia Free Trade Agreement, as EU governments were unwilling to make key concessions on hot-button issues, such as agriculture, before the vote. With the elections now over, a window of opportunity may open for renewed talks after the Australian federal election in early 2025.
The reconfirmation of von der Leyen, a strong advocate for a ‘derisking’ strategy to reduce the EU’s economic dependence on China and expand trade ties with likeminded democratic partners, should also add momentum to future negotiations.
Continuity and change
Ultimately, despite a pronounced rightward shift in the elections, the pro-European centre has held. The reappointment of Ursula von der Leyen as Commission President will provide stability amidst rising international uncertainty. However, the political weakness of France and Germany mean the EU may increasingly turn to non-traditional leaders in its south and east – namely Italy’s Georgia Meloni and Poland’s Donald Tusk – for policy direction in coming years.
James Adkins is the Europe and Eurasia Fellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. James recently completed a Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Modern Languages majoring in Political Science and International Relations, French Studies, and German Studies at the University of Western Australia.
During his fellowship, James looks forward to exploring contemporary geopolitical developments shaping Europe and the wider Eurasian region, including their implications for Australia and our region, the Indo-Pacific.
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