Rani Ravinthran | Cyber, Tech and Space Fellow
Image sourced from NASA via Wikimedia Commons.
When SpaceX's huge Starship rocket lit up the Texas sky in April 2023, it represented humanity's most powerful launch vehicle – before violently self-destructing minutes later. Though some saw the rocket’s catastrophic finish as a failure, the launch was a significant step toward SpaceX's ambitious aim of transforming humanity into a multiplanetary species. However, as private firms strive to modernise space access, they reveal a fundamental obstacle that is threatening the future of space exploration: the growing orbital debris problem.
The New Space Race: Progress at a Price
SpaceX's Starship test flight ended prematurely when multiple engines failed, forcing mission control to activate the vehicle's self-destruct device. Despite its shocking conclusion, the launch tested numerous crucial technologies that will allow future deep space missions to the Moon and Mars. However, this milestone in commercial spaceflight underlines a more urgent dilemma brewing in Earth's orbit, one that has the potential to undermine our spacefaring ambitions before they even begin.
As dozens of new satellites clog Earth's orbital roadways, the likelihood of catastrophic collisions is increasing dramatically. According to the European Space Agency, our planet is already encircled by about 36,500 pieces of debris larger than 10 cm, each of which can destroy a satellite or spacecraft. Add to that an estimated million smaller pieces, and Earth's orbit begins to resemble a cosmic minefield. With companies like SpaceX planning to launch vast mega-constellations of satellites, we face a geopolitical powder keg, as orbital debris knows no national boundaries and a single collision could set off a chain reaction that denies all nations access to critical orbital regions for generations.
The Orbital Dilemma
The unique legal status of outer space makes resolving this growing dilemma difficult. While the 1967 Outer Space Treaty established space as a global commons not subject to state appropriation, it did not provide governance structures suitable for the present commercial space era. The existing regulatory structure is mostly voluntary, based on outmoded UN recommendations and non-binding international norms. For example, India’s 2019 anti-satellite weapon test created hundreds of debris pieces and the international community could only express concern. Similarly, when satellite operators exceed their legal operational lifespan or fail to implement end-of-life disposal processes, there are few–if any–enforcement measures available. The outcome is a regulatory vacuum in which commercial interests frequently trump long-term orbital sustainability.
Preventing an orbital debris disaster requires urgent international cooperation to develop binding space traffic management rules and debris cleanup criteria. Without such safeguards, the current unregulated rush to commercialise space risks triggering an orbital tragedy of the commons, derailing both scientific research and the expanding commercial space economy that increasingly propels our interconnected world.
A Framework for Space Sustainability
To address the problem of orbital debris, we need a comprehensive international space governance structure. This structure could leverage on experiences from similar successful international regulatory systems such as the Montreal Protocol for ozone protection and the International Civil Aviation Organisation for air traffic management, both of which show how complex global challenges can be effectively addressed through coordinated multilateral action. The governance structure should consist of five interrelated pillars.
First, all spacecraft should have mandated end-of-life disposal protocols enforced by financial penalties to stop additional orbital debris buildup more effectively than current international recommendations. Second, it is important to clearly specify and incentivise design standards that limit fragmentation, such as incorporating required tracking beacons. Third, strong international financing is required for the development and scaling of active debris removal technology through promising methods like robotic capture and laser ablation. Fourth, in order to predict collisions, coordinate orbital trajectories, and enforce satellite distance to avoid near approaches, a centralised space traffic management (STM) system is essential. Finally, in order to address accountability in collision scenarios and ensure long-term sustainability and justice in the use of orbital resources, it is imperative that explicit liability agreements supported by insurance rules and efficient dispute resolution processes be in place.
Critics say that such laws could hinder innovation and raise costs in an industry already dealing with substantial technological and financial challenges. They use examples such as early aviation rules, which hindered aircraft development. However, the long-term repercussions of inaction outweigh any short-term disadvantages. A single satellite collision can cause immediate losses of up to $USD15 million, as well as debris that could imperil billions of dollars in space infrastructure and future launch possibilities. The 2009 collision of the Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 satellites exemplifies these hazards, producing over 2,000 trackable debris pieces and numerous smaller fragments currently orbiting Earth.
Safeguarding Humanity's Final Frontier
While we celebrate achievements such as the SpaceX Starship launch, we must also acknowledge that our growing presence in space entails significant responsibilities. The difficulty of managing orbital debris represents a critical tipping point: our technological capabilities have overtaken our governing structures. Just as early aviation required worldwide cooperation to ensure safety, space exploration now necessitates similar collaborative, multilateral action.
The space industry, which is expected to top $USD1.8 trillion by 2035, will only thrive if we develop strong international norms and encourage genuine collaboration among stakeholders. The five-pillared approach described here provides a pathway for transforming space governance from a patchwork of voluntary recommendations to a comprehensive structure that balances innovation and responsibility. By taking action today, we can ensure that the last frontier is accessible to future generations of explorers and innovators, rather than allowing unregulated debris collection to imperil humanity's space ambitions.
Rani Ravinthran is the Cyber, Tech and Space Fellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. She is an ambitious law and commerce student with a keen interest in the intersection of legal practice and emerging technologies. Currently in her final year of Bachelor of Commerce/ Bachelor of Laws at Macquarie University, Rani has gained valuable experience in the technology, finance and litigation fields, positioning her well for future work in cyber law and space regulations.
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