James Adkins | Europe and Eurasia Fellow
Macron at Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels, March 2024. Image sourced from Julian Nizet via Wikimedia Commons.
Following months of deliberation – including a political truce during the Olympics –French President Emmanuel Macron has finally appointed a new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, after snap legislative elections in July delivered a sharply divided outcome. While Barnier’s appointment is a welcome development for France’s constitutional stability, his new government will be vulnerable to a parliamentary motion of no-confidence and beholden to the far-right to survive. Three months on, Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly appears to be an act of political self-sabotage, which has hastened the waning of his political power and risks the remainder of his time in office being consumed by political crisis.
Macron’s late-night gamble
At 9pm on 9 June, as the scale of the defeat inflicted on his centrist coalition in the EU elections became apparent, Macron blindsided his political allies and enemies alike by announcing his shock decision to dissolve the National Assembly–the lower house of the French parliament. Rather than clarifying the political situation as Macron had hoped, the elections delivered an unclear result, fragmented into three main blocs. After leading in the first round with 33 per cent of the vote, there were fears that the far-right ‘Rassemblement National’ (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, would secure an absolute majority for the first time. However, when faced with the choice of handing the far-right power in the second round, French voters blinked. Tactical agreements between Macron’s coalition and the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) proved effective in preventing a far-right victory, with the RN coming in third place on 150 seats behind Macron’s coalition on 161 and the NFP on 170.
Michel Barnier: the elder statesman
Lacking a clear governing majority in the National Assembly, France finds itself in a constitutional situation without precedent in recent history. While the NFP achieved a narrow victory, its claim to nominate a Prime Minister was rejected by Macron on the basis that such a government would be unable to command a parliamentary majority. Macron thus needed to find a figure who would sufficiently appease the far-right RN so that they would not immediately support an NFP-deposed motion of no-confidence against the new government. Michel Barnier, a political veteran and former EU Brexit negotiator, who ran in the 2021 centre-right presidential primary with a hardline immigration stance, fit the bill. Appointed Prime Minister on September 5, Barnier has named a government which represents a distinct rightward shift – a sign of its complete dependency on the far-right to remain in office.
Constitutional uncertainty ahead
Barnier now faces the unenviable task of tackling pressing issues – such as a national budget deficit in breach of EU fiscal rules – while seeking to placate a divided and hostile parliament. With difficult parliamentary votes looming, it remains to be seen how long the new government can survive. If the government were to fall to a motion of no-confidence, it is unclear what would happen next given that new parliamentary elections cannot be held under the constitution until June 2025. In any case, France is likely headed towards a period of significant political instability and paralysis, leading many to conclude that the current two-round electoral system has reached its limits. There are now growing calls from across the political spectrum for France to emulate its European neighbours and switch to proportional voting, which would force political parties to compromise and form coalition governments.
Succession battle for 2027
From any angle, Macron comes away from the elections severely weakened: his coalition has lost its relative majority, the far-right have gained legitimacy by achieving a historically high vote share and the far-left – who wish to dismantle his flagship economic reforms such as raising the retirement age – have been emboldened. While Macron is unable to run at the next presidential election in 2027, were he to be succeeded by a figure from the far-left or far-right such as Le Pen, his achievements may be imperilled and legacy tarnished. Former Prime Minister Edouard Phillippe’s announcement that he will run for president has given rise to speculation that Macron may resign and hold an early presidential election. While this is unlikely, the legislative elections have forced Macron’s allies, such as Phillippe, to further distance themselves from the unpopular President.
EU leadership vacuum
The political chaos created by the snap elections is not only immensely damaging for France, but also for the EU. Despite long suffering from low domestic approval, paradoxically, Macron has won strong support across the EU by driving the development of key initiatives such as the post-COVID-19 recovery fund and being ahead of the curve on issues such as “European sovereignty”. Distracted by domestic crises, Macron’s ability to continue his EU leadership role may be jeopardised at a time when strong leadership is badly needed, particularly if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
French politics in a state of flux
Macron came to power in 2017 promising France a new kind of centrist politics which would discredit the extreme parties. Yet, the recent legislative elections have revealed that the far-right and far-left are stronger than ever, and the historically dominant parties of the centre – the Republicans and Socialists – sidelined or in turmoil. In this context, it is difficult to see Macron’s dissolution of the National Assembly as anything other than a desperate roll of the dice which has further eroded his political power, alienated his allies and strengthened the position of the political extremes ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
James Adkins is the Europe and Eurasia Fellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. He recently completed a Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Modern Languages majoring in Political Science and International Relations, French Studies, and German Studies at the University of Western Australia.
During his fellowship, James looks forward to exploring contemporary geopolitical developments shaping Europe and the wider Eurasian region, including their implications for Australia and our region, the Indo-Pacific.
Comments