Carlos Hasham
Maps Data: Google © 2025 NOAA, U.S. Navy, NGA, GEBCO Landsat/Copernicus, IBCAO, U.S. Geological Survey, TMap Mobility
The waves of independence currently lapping at Oceania’s shores present a critical challenge for Australian foreign policy. Bougainville, West Papua, and New Caledonia, three island territories distinguished by vast mineral wealth, stand at the crossroads of self-determination and geopolitical maneuvering. While these movements remain hindered by political inertia, their outcomes will alter Oceania’s market dynamics and strategic architecture. Australia cannot afford to remain a passive observer. To safeguard regional stability while addressing the evolving role of China’s strategic investment in the region, it must adopt a proactive role in leveraging economic partnerships and local diplomacy.
Bougainville
The secession of Bougainville from Papua New Guinea (PNG) currently resides in political impasse despite the resounding 97.7 per cent approval for independence in the country’s landmark 2019 referendum. Bougainville's Provisional President, Ishmael Toroama, has sharply condemned Defence Minister Richard Marles’ proposition of a security treaty with PNG, for what he perceives as "veiled threats" to their pursuit of self-determination.
For Australia to quell apathy towards future security cooperation, it must consider the Panguna Mine. Despite being dormant since 1989, its untapped reserves of gold and copper valued at over AUD$90 billion remain a pivotal aspect of Bougainville’s economic future. Previously operated by Rio Tinto, local Bougainvilleans only received approximately 0.5-1.25 per cent of profits from the mine.
Toroama has made it clear that Bougainville’s independence relies upon a reopened Panguna. By coordinating with PNG and Bougainvillean authorities, Australia can promote investment under conditions that sustain its role as the preferred diplomatic and economic partner. An opportunistic Beijing is already leveraging mining investments in the region, such as its AUD$825 million investment in the Solomon Islands' Gold Ridge Mine. Bougainville, which still relies on PNG for 85 per cent of its budget, risks falling into similar "chequebook diplomacy."
Australia’s current posture of non-intervention, which defers to PNG’s jurisdiction over Bougainville, should be adjusted to acknowledge the reality of the unwavering momentum to independence. Canberra must avoid tacitly endorsing Port Moresby’s legislative inertia, which risks endangering Australia’s relationship with Bougainville’s leadership and its economic future.
New Caledonia
Ever since a controversial voting rights bill was proposed in New Caledonia, the island has been paralysed by civil unrest. With over €2 billion in damage and mass arrests since May 2024, the island's fragile ties to Paris now hang in ominous uncertainty. New Caledonia ranks as the world’s third-largest producer of nickel, possessing approximately a quarter of global nickel reserves. The turmoil has devastated the island's economy, with most mines either halting operations or barely operational.
With 62.3 per cent of New Caledonia’s exports, the majority of which are minerals, going to China, the implications of Chinese involvement cannot be overlooked. Paris, acutely aware of these risks, previously vetoed a Chinese takeover of a local nickel mine in 2019. In contrast, the FLNKS independence party, which holds the largest stake in the island's congress, proposed leasing potential military sites to other countries, including China, to bolster state revenue in light of an unstable and foreign-controlled mining industry. Hence, New Caledonia’s future rests in utilising its nickel industry to progress, with or without Paris.
Unlike New Zealand, Australia has remained silent on the illegitimacy of the 2021 referendum that was boycotted by the native Kanak population and the Melanesian Spearhead Group’s calls for a UN mission to the island. As a nation that publicly states its affinity for the ‘Blue Pacific’, Australia should adopt a more assertive stance on the island’s decolonisation.
With Australian business leaders advocating for a New Caledonia-Australia Business Forum in 2025, Canberra has a critical opportunity to strengthen its economic and diplomatic ties with Nouméa to support its largest industry. Failing to act risks alienating Pacific allies and allowing external actors to fill the diplomatic void.
West Papua
Culturally, linguistically and historically distinct from the rest of Indonesia, West Papua has experienced longstanding tensions with Jakarta since Suharto enforced a 1962 plebiscite that affirmed Indonesian sovereignty. One driver of Indonesia’s continued governance of West Papua is the presence of the Grasberg Mine — the largest gold mine and third-largest copper mine in the world, with reserves worth an estimated AUD$157 billion. The Papuan National Liberation Army has targeted the mine repeatedly, protesting both the environmental degradation and the economic exclusion of local communities.
Historically, Australia has adhered to the strategic status quo, as exemplified by the 2008 Lombok Treaty, which binds Australia to non-interference in Indonesia’s internal matters. However, should unrest spiral beyond Jakarta’s control, external actors may intervene, bypassing Australia's neutrality. To preempt this, Australia should recalibrate its approach by offering aid to West Papua through the Pacific Regional Program, supporting sustainable development initiatives that are independent from Jakarta and aligned with its position in Melanesia. Though China has remained silent on West Papua’s independence, the region's push for secession and local control of the Grasberg Mine remains unwavering. Australia must recognize that West Papua’s future demands proactive diplomacy rather than strategic inertia.
As a consequential regional player, Australia can no longer afford a passive, risk-averse strategy in Oceania. Should it persist in silence, these independence movements may turn to foreign endorsement that fundamentally alters the region’s balance of power. With its leverage as the foremost aid donor and diplomatic leader in the Pacific, Australia possesses the capacity to engage more proactively with these island territories without endangering its bilateral relations with sovereign states.
Carlos Hasham is an Arts/Law student at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, majoring in International Law. For his semester abroad, he was selected to undertake a specialised international law program at Bocconi University, Milan, where he developed a particular interest in the geopolitics of self-determination movements. His regional focus on the Asia-Pacific has been reinforced through a cultural immersion program in Papua New Guinea and his appointment as an Australian delegate for the 2024 Australia-Indonesia Youth Exchange Program, during which he spent a month with a host family on the island of Lombok.
Commentaires