Alexandra Black | Latin America Fellow
Image sourced from Eneas de Torya via Flickr.
In October 2024, Claudia Sheinbaum made history as Mexico's first female president, taking office in a region shaped by caudillos; strong, populist leaders who use personal authority to centralise power. She inherits an internal political environment shaped by her predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), who faced criticism for his own caudillo leadership and democratic backsliding in Mexico.
Yet since taking office, Sheinbaum marked change by adopting a distinct, pragmatic leadership style. But to truly break from caudillo tradition, she must confront Mexico’s ongoing shift toward a de-facto one-party state. In the interest of Mexican democracy and her own leadership, Sheinbaum’s pragmatic modus operandi must extend to addressing the culture of anti-pluralism and centralised power rife in Mexico’s political system.
For Sheinbaum, this means balancing respect for AMLO’s vision with her own, while also navigating the gendered expectations placed on female leaders in a political landscape where effective governance is often aligned with strongman tactics. This is no easy task, but if successful, she stands to become a model of moderate, progressive leadership in Latin America.
Caudillos in Latin America
Latin America harbours a long legacy of caudillos, traditionally understood as military strongmen who dominated the region from the early 19th to late 20th century. In modern times, caudillismo persists though leaders who use personalism and charisma to centralise political power and sideline opponents. The archetype can span both sides of the political spectrum, and has led to democratic backsliding from both rightist and leftist leaders. In recent years, experts have noted the re-emergence of caudillos in the region, including Nayib Bukele in El Salvador and Evo Morales in Bolivia.
In Mexico, Sheinbaum’s predecessor AMLO was accused of such tactics. As the leader of their party the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), AMLO was hugely popular due to a focus on social justice and poverty. However, he also attacked the press, undermined institutional oversight, and overhauled the judiciary by replacing appointed judges with elected officials, a move widely seen as undermining judicial independence. His actions have weakened healthy multi-party competition and opposition from autonomous bodies, leaving power unduly concentrated in the executive. This anti-pluralism is especially concerning in a country where journalists and political actors already experience high levels of violence.
Pragmatic politics
As AMLO’s handpicked successor, Sheinbaum faces the challenge of respecting his influence whilst pursuing her own path. While undoubtedly qualified, Sheinbaum’s rhetoric of “continuity with change” demonstrates her deep policy alignment to AMLO. However, it is her approach to leadership that sets her apart, as seen through her handling of United States (US)-Mexico relations.
In response to President Trump’s aggressive tariff threats over fentanyl trafficking, she has now secured two delays in their implementation through diplomacy and decisive action. Sheinbaum has gained praise for defending Mexico’s sovereignty, advocating for respect and dialogue while appealing to US interests by deploying 10,000 troops to the border. She strategically highlighted to Trump the subsequent significant drop in fentanyl trafficking, has not tolerated US accusations of her government’s link to criminal gangs, and even promised her own retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump’s brinkmanship. Unlike her predecessor, Sheinbaum has remained firm and “cool-headed,” while avoiding alienating Mexico’s largest trade partner. As a result, her approval rating as of February 2025 stands at 85 per cent.
Pragmatism, discipline, and commitment to data-driven policy has gained Sheinbaum a reputation as a technocrat; one who emphasises technical expertise in decision-making. Her leadership style could also be viewed as a response to the deep-seated biases that female leaders face. Traits like assertiveness and authority, seen as strengths in male politicians, are often perceived differently when exhibited by women. Unlike AMLO and other caudillos, Sheinbaum must project strength while avoiding being seen as emotional or dramatic and instead appeal to reason and seriousness to gain respect. Considering this, caudillismo as a leadership style is unlikely to work for Sheinbaum. Yet its decline may ultimately benefit Mexican democracy if it results in a shift from strongman politics to institutional governance.
The path forward
For Sheinbaum to truly break from caudillismo, she must take action to restore checks and balances on her power as president. Both Mexican democracy and Sheinbaum’s leadership would benefit from governance legitimised not by personalism, but independent institutions. If successful, Sheinbaum could demonstrate to a region dominated by caudillo tactics that leadership rooted in reason and democratic values can be effective.
Sheinbaum must commit to a vision where political parties and autonomous institutions can operate freely to balance the power of the executive. Though Sheinbaum has implemented policies to curb nepotism and limit term extensions, her support for AMLO’s controversial reforms undermines such gains. While it is unlikely that Sheinbaum would directly challenge AMLO’s legacy, she could and must strategically embrace pluralism. This would entail supporting the free press, promoting electoral independence, and reshaping how political opponents are framed. By avoiding demonising rhetoric and opting for measured criticism, she can lay a strong foundation for an inclusive political environment.
Given that Sheinbaum has already demonstrated pragmatism and resolve in her foreign policy, these strategies are not unrealistic. By pursuing them, she could gain allies beyond MORENA and strengthen the legitimacy of her presidency. This would represent a true break from caudillo politics, allowing Sheinbaum to not only to strengthen her own standing, but set a new standard for leadership in Latin America.
Alexandra Black is the Latin America Fellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. She holds a Bachelor of Public Policy from the Australian National University, with minors in Development Studies and Spanish Language. Alexandra’s interest in Latin America is driven by her Peruvian heritage and experience living and working in the region. As a fellow, she is eager to raise awareness about social, economic, and political developments in Latin America.
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