Oliver Hovenden | Climate and Environment Fellow
Image sourced from Owamux via Wikimedia Commons.
Long isolated from geopolitics, Antarctica now finds itself at the centre of a global power struggle, as melting ice reshapes both geographical and political landscapes. For decades, the Antarctic Treaty System has shielded the continent from conflict, resource extraction and militarisation. Yet the notion of Antarctic exceptionalism—the belief that Antarctica should remain immune to geopolitical and economic pressures—is thawing rapidly as both global temperatures and international tensions continue to rise.
Even as sea-ice coverage reaches record lows, environmental stewardship of Antarctica is weakening, with rising geopolitical rivalries and resource competition taking precedence. Australia, once a leader in Antarctic governance, must reassert its role and push for reform of the Antarctic Treaty System—before it melts into irrelevance.
A Place Apart
A “sleeping giant”, Antarctica largely escaped the colonial expansion and rivalries that shaped the modern world, with the first recorded landing on the continent occurring in 1895. Recognised for its global significance, Antarctica’s exceptional status became the bedrock of the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, which established it as a demilitarised zone dedicated to peace, scientific research and environmental conservation. The 1991 Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty further strengthened protections by banning mining and oil-drilling, imposing strict conservation regulations, and establishing a comprehensive Antarctic regime “in the interest of mankind as a whole.” Yet as global powers push the limits of the regime’s protections, the Antarctic Treaty System is on thin ice.
Melting Ice, Rising Stakes
Alongside geopolitical tensions, the Antarctic continent is heating up. While global temperatures have risen 1°C since pre-industrial levels, the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed by over 2.5°C, with the continent now losing ice six times faster than in the 1990s. This melting accelerates global sea level rise.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that Antarctic ice loss could result in sea level rises of almost two metres by 2100 without strong climate action. Even modest rises threaten to displace the roughly 230 million people currently living within one metre of the high tide line. Small Island Developing States in the Pacific—where many islands lie just one to two metres above sea level—are particularly vulnerable, with sea levels rising at nearly twice the global average.
A Multipolar Antarctica
Beyond its environmental consequences, accelerating ice loss is also exposing previously inaccessible oil, gas, and mineral reserves, heightening geopolitical tensions. Once dominated by Western nations, Antarctic geopolitics are shifting. Russia’s recent discovery of vast oil and gas reserves in the British Antarctic Territory, for example, has heightened fears of future resource exploitation. Meanwhile, China’s rapid Antarctic expansion has raised concerns over dual-use military purposes, including surveillance. With Chinese military strategy explicitly signalling Antarctica’s role in the country’s overseas-expansion interests, the placement of its newest “research station”, just outside the Australian Antarctic Territory has raised alarms. This development follows concerns raised by Australian intelligence agencies of undisclosed Chinese military activities at research bases, violating the principles of the Antarctic Treaty.
Cracks in the Ice: The Case for Reform
Designed for a different world, cracks in the Antarctic Treaty System are beginning to emerge. Originally designed to foster cooperation, the consensus-based system, which allows a single nation to block decisions, is obstructing effective governance. Russia and China have repeatedly exploited this, blocking environmental protections such as the expansion of marine protected areas.
Weak enforcement mechanisms are also allowing violations to go unchecked. Russia has been accused of concealing illegal fishing activities and obstructing compliance inspections, while China allegedly exploits both fisheries and tourism in the region. Without strong enforcement and monitoring mechanisms, there remains no way to hold countries to account for such violations.
Without urgent reform, the Antarctic Treaty System risks becoming obsolete. Efforts must focus on establishing enforceable environmental protections and implementing an independent centralised monitoring system to hold states accountable. A governance model that shifts away from consensus-based decision making towards a qualified majority system, similar to that used in the European Union, could prevent obstructionism while preserving cooperative governance.
Great Southern Lands
Australia’s claim to 42 per cent of Antarctica positions it as a key player in the continent’s governance. As the Council of Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions notes, Australia’s relationship with Antarctica brings with it a “unique social responsibility” to lead protection efforts.
Historically, Australia has led conservation efforts, particularly through the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, an integral part of the Antarctic Treaty System based in Hobart. However, during a recent federal inquiry, experts warned that the Australia’s Antarctic leadership is waning, with historical underfunding allowing emerging powers to expand their influence. With the continent’s future in the balance, Australia must reassert its leadership, advocating for Treaty reform, while also amplifying the voices of Pacific nations in decision making.
Freezing Ambitions: Lessons for the Global Commons
In an era of evolving geographical and geopolitical landscapes, Antarctica is a test case for governing global commons. The concept of the “common heritage of humanity”, which has shaped international governance from outer space to the deep seabed, is increasingly under threat as nations prioritise strategic and economic interests over collective stewardship. Strengthening the Antarctic Treaty System would set a precedent for preserving global commons, proving that multilateral governance can survive in a multipolar world. At this critical moment in world history, strong Australian leadership is needed more than ever. If Antarctic exceptionalism melts away, it won’t just be history dissolving—it will be our collective future sinking with it.
Oliver Hovenden is the Climate and Environment Fellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. He holds a Bachelor of Arts and Laws (Honours) from the University of Tasmania, majoring in Politics and International Relations. Growing up in Hobart—Australia’s gateway to Antarctica—Oliver developed a deep interest in the region, influenced by his parents, who met working at an Antarctic research station. As Climate and Environment Fellow, Oliver is excited to use an environmental justice lens to explore the latest international developments in climate law and policy, the impact of climate activism, and Australia’s important role in the Antarctic and Indo-Pacific regions.
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