Annaliese Hawkins | Middle East Fellow
Image sourced from Liam Enea via Wikimedia Commons.
The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election has left the world reeling, with president-elect Donald Trump securing a landslide victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. Taking out the popular vote as well as the electoral college votes, Trump lauded this win as the “greatest political movement of all time”. What this means for the Middle East region will only become clear with time. However, the continuation of strong US-Israeli relations and a potential decline in humanitarian efforts in crisis zones appears likely.
Trump has historically pursued transactional ties over strategic, long-term relationships – a trend which is likely to continue and may deteriorate America’s long-term influence in the region. His efforts to broker normalisation agreements, while aimed at restoring influence and maintaining control over regional relationships, also reflect this transactional approach rather than a commitment to lasting, strategic partnerships. However, Saudi Arabia's emerging leadership in the region, particularly its potential role in mediating a Gaza ceasefire, underscores how critical its involvement will be in shaping future peace efforts.
While much may change in the coming years, immediate shifts in places like Gaza by the administration are unlikely due to the complexity of the situation. As Trump returns to the White House, it is crucial to recognise the ongoing efforts of organisations and activists fighting for peace in Gaza. Their impact should not be diminished in light of the election outcome.
Transactional Trump and America’s Investment
Trump’s Middle Eastern foreign policy is unlikely to entirely depart from his first presidency, which illuminated his close relationship with Israel and disinterest in international humanitarian efforts. The disengagement from international organisations such as his 2018 defunding of UNRWA is, for example, expected to continue. Today, Israel’s desire to sever of ties with UNRWA, alongside Trump’s likelihood to follow suit, puts Palestinians at risk of losing vital healthcare access - a potentially devastating consequence amid an escalating crisis. Amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, there are concerns that a Trump administration may not pressure Israel to engage in ceasefire negotiations. Trump’s tendency to accommodate certain world leaders, particularly Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, could reinforce this stance. The Trump administration's close ties with Israel were further solidified by its 2018 withdrawal from the UN Human Rights Council, citing alleged anti-Israel bias. The US-Israel partnership is likely to remain strong, though external pressures could force them into difficult discussions on a Gaza ceasefire.
The Role of Saudi-Israeli Normalisation in Ceasefire Negotiations
There is growing recognition that America must shift its approach from asserting dominance to fostering relationships built on dialogue and mutual respect, especially in the Middle Eastern region. Yet for the moment, U.S. foreign policy remains entrenched in path dependency, rendering its relations with Gulf states largely driven by energy interests and oil prices. Trump will likely prioritise Saudi-Israeli normalisation, but a more urgent crisis in the Gaza strip demands attention before his January inauguration. In light of current events, past setbacks such as the 2019 cancellation of Camp David peace talks with the Taliban have fuelled scepticism about the prospects for peace.
As Trump’s first term emphasised Middle Eastern normalisation, notably through the Abraham Accords, his return to office may see him pursuing Saudi-Israeli normalisation more aggressively. However, Saudi Arabia’s insistence on Palestinian state recognition as a condition could compel Trump to address Palestinian rights and engage more actively in ceasefire negotiations. Nevertheless, while Saudi Arabia may succeed in pressuring Trump to engage more substantively with ceasefire efforts, his disregard for humanitarian organisations threatens to undermine these efforts and prolong the suffering of those caught in the Gaza crisis.
The Decline of American Influence and the Rise of Humanitarian Organisations?
If Trump’s administration prioritises transactional relationships and normalisation deals that hinge on individual gain, it could hinder their long-term influence over the region. However, the ongoing crisis in Gaza demands urgent attention. It is important not to overlook the crucial work being done by international organisations like Medical Aid for Palestinians, Red Cross and UNRWA as well as regional players like Egypt, Jordan, and Qatar. While the U.S election outcome may shape policies that undermine humanitarian organisations and efforts, these initiatives are not solely dependent on the Trump administration. Despite shifts in U.S. leadership, these organisations and countries continue to provide humanitarian aid and push for a ceasefire. Support can be given by donating, advocating for ceasefire policies, and raising awareness; These acts contribute to efforts that transcend political changes in Washington.
While Trump’s victory left many disheartened, it is crucial to recognise that there are still administrations and organisations upholding hope. In a shifting global order, America’s declining influence, particularly after its unyielding support for Israel amid the Gaza crisis, cannot be ignored. This waning influence adds complexity to Trump’s push for a Saudi-Israeli normalisation deal, which will likely hinge on the Kingdom’s key demand for Palestinian state recognition. Despite these challenges, regional actors and international organisations continue to advocate for peace and humanitarian aid. The path to ending war in Gaza remains difficult under the Trump administration, but the collective efforts pushing for a ceasefire offer a glimmer of hope for a more peaceful future, driven by the global call for accountability and lasting solutions.
Annaliese Hawkins is the Middle East Fellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. She holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from the University of Melbourne, majoring in Politics and International Studies, with a minor in French. During an exchange semester at Sciences Po in France, she earned a Certificate of Social Sciences and Humanities. Her studies focused on Middle Eastern and South Asian politics. As a participant in the YAIA Fellowship program, Annaliese is excited to bring her background and skills to new projects and discussions.
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