Vijhai Grayan | Cyber, Tech and Space Fellow
Image sourced from NASA via Unsplash.
In the vast, silent expanse above us, an ungoverned frontier is rapidly taking shape. Space — once the domain of Cold War superpowers, scientific collaboration, and utopian visions of human exploration — has become a high-stakes battleground for private enterprise and national ambition. The modern space race is no longer about footprints on the Moon or flags on Martian soil; it is about monopolising orbital real estate, securing economic dominance, and exploiting the governance vacuum.
But while governments, corporations, and militaries scramble to secure their share of a space industry projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, the framework governing this new frontier is stagnant, fragile, and ill-equipped to address the complexities of an increasingly commercialised space domain. International law and agreements were conceived for an era of state-led space exploration. Today, with the rise of private actors and geopolitical conflicts, existing legal mechanisms are struggling to keep pace with emerging risks such as territorial disputes over lunar resources, unregulated satellite proliferation leading to congestion and collision risks, and the weaponisation of space technology.
The Space Gold Rush and the New Robber Barons
Just as 19th-century industrialists seized land and resources with little oversight, today’s space pioneers are claiming orbital slots, lunar mining sites, and data flows. SpaceX and Amazon are launching thousands of satellites, creating near-monopolies on global broadband, while China, the United States (US), and Luxembourg-backed companies push ahead with lunar mining, often interpreting resource rights to their advantage. Without governance, a corporate arms race risks deepening inequality and unchecked exploitation. Space law is being rewritten in boardrooms, not global institutions, echoing historical cases of extractive industries on Earth, such as the colonial-era exploitation of African and South American mineral wealth.
The Legal Black Hole of Space Law
The foundation of space governance rests on agreements conceived during the Cold War —a time when private space activity was barely a consideration. The Outer Space Treaty (1967) prohibits national sovereignty over celestial bodies but is silent on corporate permanent facilities. The Moon Agreement (1979) attempts to regulate resource extraction but lacks support from major spacefaring nations. The Liability Convention (1972) holds states accountable for space debris damage, as seen in NASA's case with the Otero family, but does not cover commercial disputes or environmental concerns about satellite megaconstellations.
The Artemis Accords provide a US-led framework for responsible lunar exploration, involving largely allied nations but falling short of establishing universally accepted principles. Rather than filling existing legal gaps, competing national frameworks are emerging without coordination, leaving core questions of ownership, resource rights, and liability unresolved.
Terrestrial frameworks fail in space because there are no clear property rights, no legal enforcement mechanisms, and no governing authority with the power to intervene. Unlike Earth's natural resources, which are tied to sovereign territory and governed by UN treaties, space resources exist in a jurisdictional void. This lack of clarity opens the door to a chaotic and conflict-prone future.
Geopolitical Fault Lines and the Balkanisation of Space
The dream of space as a shared domain for all of humanity is rapidly fading. Instead, we are witnessing the balkanisation of space, where competing nations and corporations establish their own spheres of influence with little regard for multilateral cooperation. Beyond legal ambiguity, it is geopolitical rivalry that now drives fragmentation—raising the risk of disputes, militarisation, and clashing regulations, ultimately threatening the sustainability of space and global security. China’s aggressive plans for a lunar base, Russia’s anti-satellite weapons tests, and the US-led Artemis Accords are all signals that we are moving toward a fragmented, self-interested approach to space governance. The European Union, India, and Japan are developing independent strategies rather than pursuing global cooperation.
While there is no UN-led space security framework that is taken seriously by major powers, initiatives exist that could serve as a foundation. The UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) has attempted to promote guidelines for space sustainability, and discussions at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva have explored arms control measures. However, without major power buy-in, these efforts are symbolic rather than enforceable.
The Path to a Sustainable Space Future
The crisis in space is not inevitable—it is a result of willful inaction. A sustainable, fair, and conflict-free space economy is still possible with decisive reforms:
Global Space Commons Treaty – Similar to international maritime law, space should be governed as a shared global resource, not corporate property.
Space Environmental Protection Agency – Space debris mitigation must be mandatory.
International arbitration framework – Space conflicts must be resolved through global legal institutions, not unilateral action.
Strengthen liability enforcement – Clearer and faster enforcement mechanisms are needed for state and private actors alike.
Key actors in this transition include the UN (via expanded COPUOS oversight), a coalition of major spacefaring nations (China, US, EU); and private entities willing to self-regulate within a broader framework of accountability. This necessitates a new multilateral institution dedicated to space governance, modelled after the International Civil Aviation Organisation.
However, if current trends persist, space will become a domain of unchecked corporate and geopolitical rivalry, resource monopolisation, environmental degradation, and potential military conflict. If the international community acts now, space could remain a shared domain that benefits all of humanity. The next decade will determine whether space becomes a shared domain for humanity or a battleground for competing interests.
Vijhai Grayan is the Cyber, Tech and Space Fellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. He is a lawyer at a leading Australian technology company and an MBA candidate at the University of Sydney, where he received the Future Leaders Scholarship. With expertise in law, cyber, and technology, he is passionate about the rapid evolution of technology, its profound impact on global society, and its transformative potential to reshape international affairs.
Our 2025 Cyber, Tech and Space Fellow is sponsored by .au Domain Administration (auDA). For more information, visit their website here.
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