Lejla Cavcic | Europe and Eurasia Fellow
Image sourced from Allen Rad via Unsplash.
“To the red apple!”, exclaims Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a video posted to his official Facebook account in August 2020. As he recites a poem, Ottoman military music plays in the background, and a video showing the Seljuk army cuts to footage of the modern Turkish military. The ‘Kızıl elma’ or ‘red apple’, is a traditional symbol of Türkiye’s endeavour toward autonomy and power on a global scale and an ode to its imperial past. Under Erdoğan, the pursuit of the ‘red apple’ has reemerged under the banner of the ‘Century of Turkey’, which seeks to adopt a more autonomous role in regional affairs and on the international stage. This new direction can be characterised by three main goals: redefining Türkiye’s national identity, balancing foreign relations, and the development of a national defence industry. Türkiye’s quest to become a more independent geopolitical actor is a strategic balancing act, which requires it to delicately weigh its own interests and manage regional issues without compromising its long-held alliances.
Türkiye’s Redefined National Identity
Türkiye’s post-World War I identity was that of a Western-aligned, secular state. Today, under Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Türkiye leans closer to a conservative, Eastern state, pushing away from secularism. This shift has manifested through significant symbolic changes including the conversion of the Hagia Sophia back into a mosque in 2020, asserting a shift back to a dominant Islamic-Turkish identity, as well as in 2022, when the country changed its official name from ‘Turkey’ to ‘Türkiye’, moving away from any connotations to a “westernised, anglicised name”. Erdoğan’s current politics have shifted towards a focus on an independent foreign policy, regional influence and national sovereignty. However, regardless of its political rule over the centuries, Türkiye’s unique geographical location as a crossroads between Europe, Asia and the Middle East means that it must act as a bridge in global geopolitics.
Balancing Relations – The Question of Ukraine
In pursuit of strategic autonomy, Türkiye has sought to balance its relationships with its traditional allies, the United States (US) and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) with its ties to Russia and China. Most notably, Erdoğan’s neutral approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict means Türkiye asserts itself as both pro-Ukraine, supporting the country militarily, whilst maintaining relations with Russia. Domestically, this approach is effective for Erdoğan, whose supporters are sceptical of the West and believe it will never treat Türkiye as an equal.
Consequently, Türkiye is viewed as one of the few countries that can play the role of mediator in the conflict. US President Donald Trump’s push for a negotiated settlement and the warm personal relationship between Trump and Erdoğan may further aide the facilitation of effective peace talks with Putin. Previous attempts of Turkish mediation first began in 2022, with Türkiye hosting foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine in Antalya, as well as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered by Türkiye to allow for exportation of food products from Ukraine. The success of future mediation requires that Türkiye continues supporting Ukraine whilst maintaining contact with Russia.
The Development of a National Defence Industry
A key part of Türkiye’s drive for strategic autonomy is the development of its indigenous defence industry. Extending the red apple symbol to the name of the country’s fighter UAV ‘Bayraktar Kızılelma’ to evoke a sense of national pride and advancement toward its strategic goals. The establishment of an indigenous defence industry aims to liberate the country from the constraints imposed by the importation of defence products and allow it to engage militarily without outside hindrance. For example, after purchasing the Russian S-400 air defence missile, Türkiye was removed from the US-led F-35 fighter jet program. Türkiye’s national defence industry also enables it to project power and develop regional influence in Eurasia. For instance, its role in providing Ukraine with Turkish TB2 Bayraktar drones was crucial at the start of the conflict against Russian forces. Türkiye’s ability to act in Ukraine to enhance its global standing reflects the development of its independent foreign policy and strategic balancing of regional dynamics and alliances.
Stalled European Union (EU) Membership Negotiations
Türkiye’s changing identity and shift towards a more independent foreign policy under Erdoğan has had major implications for its relationship with the EU, particularly accession negotiations. Türkiye remains a key partner for the EU due to it being an important migration channel, its role in Ukraine, and its NATO membership. However, despite Türkiye’s strategic importance to the EU, accession negotiations have stalled. While this can be partly attributed to its refusal to recognise Cyprus as an independent state, a more significant obstacle has been the democratic backsliding which has occurred under Erdoğan. The erosion of the rule of law, human rights and judicial independence, as well as departure from secularism, have distanced Türkiye from developing the core EU values required of member states.
Türkiye’s pursuit of the ‘red apple’ under Erdoğan has manifested through redefining its national identity, bolstering its national defence industry, and realigning itself as a balancing power. However, this pursuit has come at the cost of isolation from its traditional NATO allies and frozen EU accession negotiations. Over coming years, Türkiye will have to balance its pursuit of strategic autonomy with protecting its national interests and long-standing alliances to achieve its global geopolitical ambitions.
Lejla Cavcic is the Europe and Eurasia Fellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. Lejla holds a Bachelor of Laws and Bachelor of Arts from the University of Adelaide, majoring in Politics and International Relations. Her passion for Europe and Eurasia is influenced by her Bosnian heritage. She is fluent in Bosnian, having earned two Awards of Excellence in the language during her senior school years. As the Europe and Eurasia Fellow, Lejla is excited to leverage her knowledge to contribute to discussions on international affairs, human rights, and their implications for the region.
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