Poppy Bell | Climate and Environment Fellow
Image sourced from Lukáš Lehotský via Unsplash.
As its next federal election draws nearer, Australia finds itself at an environmental and geopolitical crossroads hinging on energy policy.
In June 2024, Peter Dutton, Leader of the Opposition, unveiled his party’s controversial new energy strategy. He announced that a Coalition government would reject Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction target and opt for a nuclear-powered future. Fossil fuels such as coal and gas would be prolonged as transition fuels, sidelining renewables. This policy could bear severe ramifications not only for the environment, but also for Australia’s standing within the Pacific region and wider international community.
Nuclear power is admittedly an attractive, low-emissions energy source gaining popularity, with 440 reactors operating in 33 nations. Some countries have shown considerable success, such as France, which derives 75 per cent of its energy from nuclear power. However, deploying nuclear in Australia would be time-consuming and expensive. A comprehensive report from Herbert Smith Freehills highlights significant barriers of cost, development time, and social licence. Contrary to the Coalition’s claims, the CSIRO has modelled that building a single large-scale reactor could take up to 15 years and AUD$8.5 billion. Furthermore, Australia has federal and state bans on nuclear power and a critical lack of commercial nuclear experience. For Australia, a nuclear future is a lot of time and money away from realisation.
Alternatives to a carbon-intensive pathway to nuclear
Australia harbours the potential for a steady energy transition through prioritising renewable energy. Solar power is particularly promising, Australia boasting the highest solar coverage per square metre of any continent. Furthermore, offshore wind development is a promising nascent industry due to strong and consistent wind patterns and almost 60,000km of coastline. The Australian Government has recently granted feasibility licences for 12 new offshore wind projects located off the coast of Gippsland, Victoria, which could generate 25 GW of power. Through the Future Made in Australia act, the Labor Government is carving out Australia’s pathway to becoming a renewables superpower, through delivering an Energy Industry Jobs plan, streamlining priority projects, and unlocking over $65 billion in investment.
Where the Coalition’s nuclear strategy is laden with risk, the renewables solution is consistent and measured. Adopting a renewables-focused pathway could provide the time needed to thoroughly address nuclear feasibility challenges, without the ticking time bomb of fossil ‘transition fuels.’ The Coalition’s proposed strategy dismisses short-term energy goals and prolongs coal stations to wager on the future, with grave environmental and geopolitical ramifications.
A threat to Australia’s regional and international standing
Dutton’s strategy of continuing to run coal-fired power stations while developing nuclear would increase emissions instead of reducing them, with severe consequences for Australia’s strategic standing in the Pacific.
Pacific Island nations face urgent existential risks from climate change, despite contributing less than 1 per cent of global emissions. Key issues include rising sea levels and the salinisation of freshwater resources, which threaten drinking water, agriculture, and infrastructure. Land loss leads to forced displacement and cultural devastation, jeopardising collective identity, agency, and sovereignty. Rising ocean temperatures and acidification also threaten ecosystems.
In 2023, officials from Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Tonga, Fiji, Niue, and the Solomon Islands, established a resolution called the “Port Vila Call for a Just Transition to a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific”, calling on the international community to urgently phase out coal, oil and gas. The Coalition’s pathway for nuclear contradicts this and risks degrading Australia’s relationship with Pacific Islands.
Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong has commented that the Coalition's decision to rule out setting a 2030 climate could be dire for national security. She explained, "We are now in a position where Australia is a partner of choice, but the opportunity to be the only partner of choice has been lost…and we're in a state of permanent contest in the Pacific.” Wong claims that Pacific Island nations continue to raise Mr Dutton's dismissive comments from 2015, when he joked about water lapping at the door of Pacific Island nations.
The Pacific is increasingly crowded with various powers vying for influence, including China, which has been expanding its economic and military presence through aid and investment. This includes a 2022 security deal with the Solomon Islands which included provisions for a potential Chinese military presence. China is a global leader in the race to renewables, its emissions already falling from peak, and policymakers preparing even more ambitious 2035 targets. This credibility and economic prowess expand Chinese influence in the Pacific. To retain its position as the preferred partner in the Pacific, Australia must swiftly rebuild relationships with its neighbours and react appropriately to the urgency of the climate crisis that threatens the region.
Potential geopolitical implications of Australia’s energy policy extend far beyond the Pacific. Some climate experts suggest that Dutton’s strategy could potentially jeopardise Australia’s 2015 commitment to the Paris Agreement. This landmark accord, endorsed by almost 200 nations, commits to limiting global warming to well below 2°C. To date, no signatory country has backtracked on its climate targets. If Australia were to pursue this course of action, its international legitimacy would suffer immensely.
Conclusion
As the Australian federal election draws closer, Dutton has proclaimed he is “very happy” for it to become a de facto “referendum on energy.” When Australians make their way to the polling booths, they should not only keep in mind the need to keep our lights on. We must remember the need to keep our neighbours safe, our biodiversity rich, and our national security protected.
Poppy Bell is the Climate and Environment Fellow for Young Australians in International Affairs. She is a Chancellor's Scholar at the University of Melbourne, pursuing a Bachelor of Arts (Politics & International Studies, Economics) and Diploma in French.
As a Public Affairs Analyst for international renewable energy developer CIP, Poppy engages with Government on environmental legislation and develops stakeholder engagement strategies for renewables projects across Australia and New Zealand. This experience has honed her understanding of the complex interplay between climate action, environmental policy, and cultural considerations.
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